Jimmy Butler Trade Recap
By Jason Daniels
The long national (midwestern?) nightmare is over. Jimmy Butler has been traded from the Minnesota Timberwolves, along with second-year center Justin Patton, to the Philadelphia 76ers for wing Robert Covington, frontcourt player Dario Saric, guard Jerryd Bayless and a 2022 second-round pick. Maybe not the most surprising destination given the way Butler had tanked his trade value by essentially bullying his way out of Minnesota, but any time a player of his caliber changes teams, it is a big deal. WIth that in mind, and with several days for this move to marinate, here are my thoughts on Jimmy Butler to Philadelphia.
Let’s start with the big name in the transaction, Jimmy Butler. In a vacuum, Butler is just the type of player the 76ers needed: he is an elite defender who will only improve their already-elite defense, but even more importantly, he is a consistent scoring threat who can be counted on to score late in game (the Sixers are among the worst teams in the league in 4th-quarter offense). In a way, he is an evolved form of Robert Covington, who is efficient yet limited on the offensive end. It goes without saying that the addition of Butler represents a drastic talent upgrade for Philadelphia-- alongside Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, Jimmy forms a Big Three core of players, all of whom are arguably top-25 players in the league, if not better.
I have two outstanding concerns for Philadelphia in the wake of this trade. First, even though Saric and Covington were starters for the squad at the time of the trade, I think the move really hurts their bench. The trade could see JJ Redick moved back into the starting lineup, which is not necessarily the worst thing, but doing so leaves Wilson Chandler and rookie Landry Shamet as the most reliable bench players on the roster (at least until we see the debut of Zhaire Smith in the beginning of 2019). It should be mentioned, however, that the 76ers’ best bench players last year-- Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova-- were acquired midseason on the buyout market and this year’s buyout market could be even more active. The team could very well make the same types of moves this winter that could give them a similar boost, only this time, they will have three All-Stars on the roster, instead of two, which is usually the hardest part of roster-building anyway. To pile on, I think the trade also drastically hurts the team’s spacing, as Covington and Saric were two of the best 3-point shooters on the team. While Jimmy is a very solid 3-point shooter in his own right, he is also a fairly ball-dominant player, as opposed to the lower-maintenance Covington, and playing the team’s three best players-- Simmons, Butler, and Embiid-- at once means that JJ Redick will almost certainly need to be on the court with them just to provide some floor spacing. This could become a concern for the Philadelphia defense during the playoffs, evidenced by their matchup with Boston in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, when Redick became a consistent target whenever the Celtics had the ball and needed a basket.
The second concern I have for the 76ers here has to do with the way that Jimmy has departed from the last two teams he played on. He spent the first month of the 2018-19 season behaving like Rick James at Eddie Murphy’s house, grinding mud all over the Timberwolves’ couches. He was constantly frustrated by Karl-Anthony Towns, a franchise center who has never missed a game and who, at the time of this writing, is a career .540/.391/.840 shooter. Butler is joining a team with a young point guard (Ben Simmons) who adamantly refuses to shoot outside the paint and another (Markelle Fultz) who literally looks like he forgot how to shoot. I worry a little bit for Simmons and Fultz’s development because their already-steep learning curve only intensified with the team’s acquisition of Butler, who will be on a mission the rest of the season, as he will hit free agency next summer. I’m not totally sure what the team needs to do with Fultz because I don’t think they can really afford to let him learn on the job anymore, given his shooting struggles and the ramped-up expectations that come with acquiring Butler. They may just need to trade him for an established veteran (for whom, I have no idea; I couldn’t begin to place his trade value). That, plus the concern that Jimmy might literally throw him out of practice by the scruff of his jersey collar, make me a little concerned for him.
The Minnesota end of the deal is far less exciting, but still worth mentioning. At the beginning of the season, I predicted that they’d finish outside the playoff race with or without Butler. This acquisition does not change those predictions, but I think there could be a little bit of an “addition by subtraction” effect in play. I think that Towns will play more to his full potential without the awkwardness of Butler’s presence there. As underwhelmed as I’ve been by Andrew Wiggins thus far, I think he might even get a little bit of a bump in productivity and should play looser without Butler there. The boon in their productivity alone is a positive for the Wolves. In terms of the players they are bringing back, Robert Covington and Dario Saric, I think both are intriguing fits. Covington should be that wing defender we thought Wiggins would be upon entering the league, and Saric could be an excellent fit at the power forward position next to Towns… on offense, at least. Maybe Covington’s defensive prowess takes a bit of a hit in Minnesota without plus defenders like Ben Simmons next to him and elite rim protectors like Joel Embiid behind him. Despite that, he is a good enough defender overall to make an impact for the team (which might not be saying much, given the Wolves’ struggles on defense). I would also be interested in playing him in offensive sets on the same side of the court as Towns, who should be able to kick the ball out to Covington for threes when he gets double-teamed.
The Wolves currently have the worst defense in the entire league. However, they do have a fairly potent offense. With a lineup featuring Towns, Wiggins, Saric, Covington (and Derrick Rose/Jeff Teague/Tyus Jones at point guard), I think the Wolves should lean all the way in and become an exciting, up-tempo team that simply tries to outscore teams and worries about defense next season. It might drive coach Tom Thibodeau crazy in the process to go against his defensive roots, but it would be in the team’s best interest for him to not be coaching the team much longer anyway. I figure, play to the strength of your personnel, especially since, at 5-9, a playoff spot is already a long shot.
If I am giving grades out for the trade, I’m giving Philadephia a B+. I’m concerned for the lack of depth and spacing left on the roster in wake of the trade, but as mentioned above, the most important thing is getting stars on your roster, and with the way the buyout market could shape up this season, the remaining spots in the rotation could very well not be finalized until February. It isn’t the most perfect fit, but Jimmy Butler is a guy who should be playing major minutes on a Finals contender, while Saric and Covington are more fringe players on a Finals contender. Character issues are certainly in play, and I’d worry a little bit about how he meshes with Simmons and Fultz, especially, but I get the feeling that he and Embiid will love each other, and, who knows, that could be all the endorsement that Jimmy needs to stick around in Philly.
For the Wolves, I’ll give them a B-. For all the mess they endured since the summer (some caused by Butler, some self-inflicted), to get two quality rotation (maybe even starter) players for a guy who not only did not want to be there, but also made possibly the biggest disruption from such a player in over a decade, I think it’s a decent haul. Obviously you wish you could have gotten a first-round pick out of the deal, even one with some heavy protections, but both Saric and Covington are young-ish, quality players who are on pretty team-friendly contracts. Jimmy proclaimed earlier this season that the Wolves “can’t f-ing win without” him, but they also weren’t f-ing winning with him this season, either, so a trade had to be made. The trade bodes well for Philadelphia taking the next step, and while it also represents a step back for Minnesota, it is also a necessary one which should make the Wolves fun to watch and, for the sake of the guys on the roster, probably more fun to be around for now, too.