Brief points on the Celtics 2018 season, through the lens of Game 7
By Jason Daniels
I had a nice little piece all typed up about an hour after the game ended, but I wanted to sleep on it in order to find a clever way to tie it all together and to also proofread it. Once I started writing, I ended up re-writing the entire piece—it is amazing what sleeping it off does to you. I woke up, forgot that there had been a game last night, and then faced that gut punch again once I realized the Celtics had indeed been eliminated from the NBA Playoffs. Rather than offer next season's rosy outlook (which will likely be coming later this summer, once we have a better idea what might happen with Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier), I decided to focus on some things I liked and didn't like from Game 7 as microcosms for the entire 2017-18 season.
I had a nice little piece all typed up about an hour after the game ended, but I wanted to sleep on it in order to find a clever way to tie it all together and to also proofread it. Once I started writing, I ended up re-writing the entire piece—it is amazing what sleeping it off does to you. I woke up, forgot that there had been a game last night, and then faced that gut punch again once I realized the Celtics had indeed been eliminated from the NBA Playoffs. Rather than offer next season's rosy outlook (which will likely be coming later this summer, once we have a better idea what might happen with Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier), I decided to focus on some things I liked and didn't like from Game 7 as microcosms for the entire 2017-18 season.
- Perhaps the biggest story on the Celtics' side in Game 7 was their struggles shooting the 3-point shot. The team shot 7-for-39 for the game, but even worse was their 4-15 mark on open 3's, and worse still (!) was their 0-4 mark in the final 5 minutes of the game (h/t @JaredWeissNBA). I think that a lot of this can be attributed to youth, as Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier III, and Jayson Tatum played major minutes despite not facing stakes quite like these before (although Tatum showed that he feeds off of moments like these, as I'll examine later). In addition to the lack of experience factor, the C's sorely missed the presence of Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward. Before his injury, Kyrie was routinely counted on to bail out collapsed possessions, and while Tatum's improvisation skills grew throughout the season, I believe that having a healthy Kyrie and a healthy Hayward will help the team get better looks at the basket and, as a result, fewer possessions where the young Celtics don't know what else to do besides toss up a 3. Further, both Hayward and Irving are capable 3-point shooters themselves, so if it does come down to tossing up some 3-pointers, the Celtics will have even more guys to do so next season.
- The Celtics started Game 7 off the way I wanted them to-- by getting Al Horford going early. Horford scored only 6 points in the C’s Game 6 loss, so it was imperative that he be involved early and often in Game 7. He finished this game with 17 points, but most of those came in the first half, as the Cavs did a good job of denying him the ball in his spots and double-teaming him as needed. As wonderful a player as Horford is, and as versatile a player as he is, ultimately he needs help in shouldering the scoring load-- he simply is not a high volume scorer. He can go out and get a team an efficient 14-20 points, and not a whole lot more than that. As with the younger members of the team, Horford will greatly benefit from the health of Kyrie and Gordon Hayward, but especially Kyrie (to be fair to Hayward, we have virtually no idea what he and Horford may be able to do together on the offensive end). Earlier in the season, the Celtics had a fantastic pick-and-pop combination involving Kyrie and Horford. The team ran versions of that combination with Rozier and Horford during the playoffs with some success, as well, but the idealized form of that offensive tool comes with Irving running the point. The healthy return of Boston's other two All-Stars will greatly alleviate the scoring burden on everybody, but I think it will be especially helpful for Horford, who can focus his energies on defense and facilitating the offense and creating opportunities for his teammates. He had an incredible run during the playoffs, and I think his play against Philadelphia in the second round was arguably some of his finest work as a Celtic, maybe even as a professional. His streaky scoring against Cleveland will be a downside of that series, and I do wish that Brad Stevens had matched him up against LeBron on defense a little bit more, but ultimately I thought Horford was terrific for these playoffs. On top of that, he is only entering his age 32 season! It must be his sort of old-man game that had me thinking he was closer to 34-35, but he definitely has plenty of gas in the tank for some hopefully deep runs with these Celtics the next couple years.
- Marcus Smart missed nearly half the regular season and four playoff games with several different injuries, but he made his mark in the games he did play, as he is known to do. The Celtics' defense in the first-round series against Milwaukee was mostly sloppy for those first four games in which Smart was absent. As soon as he returned, the defense generally shored up, as the team held Milwaukee under 90 points for the first time in the series (Milwaukee had scored in triple-digits each of the previous four games). Later on in the playoffs, he provided a relatively steady presence as the backup point guard. Smart gets erratic in trying to make plays for his team, sometimes throwing the flashy pass when it is not needed, and driving and trying to get a foul when simply running the offense would have been better. The Marcus Smart Experience would be one of the scariest rides at an amusement park and would not be recommended for the faint of heart. Smart ended Game 7 shooting 1-10 from the field. Smart also guarded virtually every Cavalier during Game 7. His erratic offensive games are tolerated when you see him successfully defending a player like Tristan Thompson in the low post, despite giving up about 4 inches of height and 20-plus pounds. Negotiations on a new contract between Smart's team and the Celtics' front office broke down before the season started, so he will enter restricted free agency this summer, a time when young players really cash in on big contracts. Unfortunately for Smart, most teams simply do not have a lot of money to spend this summer, thanks to the Great Free Agency Purge of 2016, and those who do have money to spend will likely not be spending it on Marcus Smart, who is reportedly seeking a contract in the neighborhood of $12-14 million per year (as reported by ESPN). Due to unfortunate timing and circumstances, Smart could very well be painted into a corner where he accepts his qualifying offer of around $6 million from Boston for the 2018-19 season and then hits unrestricted free agency in summer 2019. This is the scenario I anticipate, which is unfortunate for Marcus in that he doesn't get that big bag most guys his age and level of experience receive in restricted free agency, but it could work out for him where he can put together a full, healthy, productive season, and then hits unrestricted free agency in summer 2019. If Smart does accept the QO for 2018-19, that flexibility in the Celtics lineup becomes that much more tantalizing.
- The silver lining for the Celtics in Game 7 (as well as the entire playoff run, and maybe even the entire regular season) was the emergence of Jayson Tatum. The report on him as a draft prospect was that he was one of the most polished offensive players to enter the draft in years, but that he tended to fall in love with the midrange a bit too much, was an unwilling passer at times, and would likely project only as an OK defensive player. Tatum only went on to lead the league in 3-point percentage for the first two months of the season, suffering only a slight dip in his percentages with a broken finger on his shooting hand, but still finished the season shooting 43 percent (!) from 3-point territory. In the absence of Kyrie, he also became arguably the best Celtic at putting the ball on the floor and getting to the basket, a skill that was exemplified by an incredible drive and one-handed jam on LeBron James in the fourth quarter of Game 7. Tatum also hit a huge 3-pointer in that quarter to keep the Celtics in the game. There is no question about his offensive skills, and he was, in my opinion, the Celtics' best player in Game 7. His performance in the entire playoffs, but especially Game 7, when the stakes were the highest, have made him virtually untouchable in any trade rumor, in my opinion. While players who may or may not be available this summer, like Karl-Anthony Towns or Kawhi Leonard, are better players than Tatum at the moment, the fact that Tatum has been this good and is also under a very friendly rookie contract for the next three seasons makes it seem like you just have to keep him to see just how high his ceiling can be, while making the balancing of team contracts just a little bit more manageable.
- If you had told me at the onset of the 2018 Playoffs that Boston would lose in the Eastern Conference Finals in seven games, I would have taken it. Admittedly, I thought Boston would have been eliminated by Philadelphia in the second round when I made my initial playoff predictions. Naturally, as the team wins games and advances, you get just a little more invested with each day and each win. I came into the series against the Cavaliers hoping for two wins. The Celtics got those two wins in the first two games. Then the thoughts creep into your head: "what if this Celtics team is the one that snaps LeBron's streak of Finals appearances?" I was already loading up my Twitter draft tweets in case the Celtics held on. The Celtics lost the series. LeBron James spared you all from the days of pettiness I would have unleashed. The Game 7 loss was deflating. To be so close to the Finals, to have that Game 7 at home, and to lose is disappointing. Despite that, there is no shame in losing to LeBron James; the last time he didn't make the NBA Finals, I was still in college (and the Celtics just so happened to be the team representing the East in the Finals). Ultimately, the most disappointing part of this loss was that it happened with this Cavalier team. It seemed as good a time as any to get past LeBron, with a 37-year-old Kyle Korver and Jeff Green on a veteran's minimum contract serving as his most consistent supporting players. LeBron's place in history as an all-time great is another topic for another day, but that he was able to get this Cavs team to the Finals, after one teammate allegedly threw a bowl of soup at an assistant coach, after the new guy in town allegedly called out one of the mainstays in the lineup for leaving a game early, after the head coach took an extended leave of absence, after another role player's seemingly regularly scheduled appearance in gossip magazines, and after a near-total overhaul of the roster mid-season is beyond impressive. To be on the other side of that, the losing side in this match-up, is a bit frustrating, however. Even with the injuries, the Celtics still had a 3-2 lead against that Cavaliers team, and were a good 4th-quarter performance away from advancing to the Finals. When you zoom out, it was a successful season. The C's made the conference finals for the second year in a row, won two more games in that series than they did the year before, and were a good 4th-quarter away from advancing to the Finals. Maybe this loss will serve as the dues the young Celtics must pay in order for them to take their turn in the Finals. Maybe it is the closest they will ever get for the next five years. One certainty is that they were a treat to watch, all the way from October to late May. Congratulations go out to the Cleveland Cavaliers, but a very special thanks goes out to the 2018 Boston Celtics, who provided me with so much excitement and entertainment. Now on to eyeball emoji season!